Bitcoin's value could experience a remarkable surge, potentially surpassing $150,000 by the close of 2024. This projection is contingent upon the approval of a series of United States-based spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as outlined by Fundstrat, a respected investment research firm.
In a recent interview on CNBC's Squawk Box, Tom Lee, the Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat, emphasized that a successful influx of Bitcoin spot ETF applications would significantly alter the supply-demand dynamics of Bitcoin, thereby driving its price higher.
Lee's anticipation for Bitcoin's potential value didn't hold back: "Should the approval for the spot Bitcoin ETF materialize, I foresee a situation where demand outpaces the daily Bitcoin supply. This scenario would establish a clearing price exceeding $150,000, perhaps even reaching $180,000." It's worth noting that Lee's assessment pertains to spot Bitcoin ETFs approved within the United States, since Europe already hosts similar ETFs.
Presently, nearly 98% of the global trading volume for crypto-related ETFs originates from the United States, according to Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg. Once spot Bitcoin ETFs gain approval, this share could potentially rise to 99.5%.
In the event that the applications for spot ETFs are not approved, Lee's prognosis still envisions a substantial price escalation due to Bitcoin's forthcoming halving event, tentatively scheduled for April 2024. Lee explained, "With another reduction in supply anticipated, the clearing price is poised to increase. However, it may not breach the six-figure mark."
During June, influential financial entities such as Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree, and Valkyrie joined the ranks of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, in submitting applications for a Bitcoin spot ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, the timeline for decisions on these applications could extend until 2024, as the SEC has up to 240 days to finalize decisions after initiating reviews.
Meanwhile, the verdict on Grayscale's bid to transform its GBTC trust product into a Bitcoin spot ETF is expected sooner rather than later.
Bloomberg's ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, currently place a 65% likelihood on the approval of these Bitcoin spot ETFs by regulatory authorities—an upswing from the period before BlackRock's application.
Some market observers speculate that a $100,000 valuation for Bitcoin could become a reality sooner than expected. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, even wagers that Bitcoin will hit this milestone just before the halving event.
Nevertheless, not everyone shares this optimism. On August 15th, Jesse Myer, co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, expressed a contrasting viewpoint, suggesting that the market would take 12 to 18 months post-halving to fully factor in the altered reality. He remarked, "Bitcoin won't surge to $100k prior to the next halving."